Sunday, September 20, 2009

Sunday's Free NFL Betting Picks

Rob Vinciletti
NFL | Sep 20
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears
Pittsburgh Steelers
-1-127
at 5DIMES
58min.
On Sunday the Nfl system club play of the week is on the defending super bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. Game 231 at 4:15 eastern. The Steelers qualify in a solid system that pertains to their opening Thursday night win. What we want to do is play on Thursday winners vs an opponent off a Sunday loss if our team has a win percentage of .700 or better and our opponent has a win percentage of .300 or less.This system is pretty rare cashing 13 of 14 times long term. The line on this game opened with the Steelers as a 3 point favorite. However the line is down to -1 in some spots. With the extra few days to prepare the Steelers should be ready and tough to defeat for a Chicago team that suffered a tough loss Sunday night in Green Bay. On the phone card I have several BIG plays.We cashed out big on Saturday going 6-1 overall in college action. In early action I have the Nfl Game of the month from 2 systems that are 26-2 and 21-0. I have a 24-2 non conference system side and 2 others that are 20-2 and 19-3. This is the deepest week 2 card in years. For the system club play take the Steelers. BOL RV.

NFL | Sep 20
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans Saints
-1½-110
at BETUS
Started
Who knows the Eagles as well as any coach outside their organization in the NFL? Saints head coach Sean Payton is on the short list. He spent a lot of time in the NFC East with New York and Dallas, and he has seen a lot of the Philadelphia offense, with McNabb, and without McNabb when McNabb has been injured. He knows what they are limited to when McNabb isn't in there, or when McNabb is in there but cannot run the ball. He also knows that screens to Reggie Bush might be the best counter against Philly's defensive pressure. If the Eagles send guys after Brees, and suddenly Bush is in front of them and the Saints have numbers on the break, Philly is dead. But if they cannot blitz brazenly for fear of letting Bush spring loose, then they are playing back on their heels and will not like it one bit. If Brees gets the ball into the hands of Colston and Shockey and either finds himself in front of one of those little Eagles cornerbacks, those cornerbacks will find themselves flattened. TAKE NEW ORLEANS HERE.

NFL | Sep 20
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Total
43½ un-110
at BOOKM
> 5h.
Free Play from Doc�s Sports. #134 Take Under in New York @ Dallas (Sunday 8:15 pm) It is the opening of Six Flags over Jerry and this is a key match-up in the NFC East as both teams enter 1-0. The Cowboys looked good in the opener but I do not believe that their offense is as explosive with Terrell Owens. The Giants do not have any good receivers that can stretch since Plaxico Burress is off the team. I expect this to be a defensive dominated game and we will not worry about who comes out on top and just collect with the under. Doc�s Sports has a strong card going this week in college and NFL and now is the time to jump on board with one of our many football packages.

-=TOP PLAY=-
MLB | Sep 20
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
-110
at SIA
Started
Both of these teams are red hot right now, but Atlanta is at home, with the better pitcher. Cliff Lee has been very good this season, posting a 14-11 mark and 3.00 ERA. But, it's Tommy Hanson who has been the better pitcher. Hanson is 10-3 with a 2.65 ERA. Over his last three starts, he's gone 20 innings posting 20 strikeouts and allowing just 10 hits and one earned run! Atlanta has bombed LHP all season long, putting 5.3 runs per game vs. southpaws. The Braves are 47-34 this season vs. winning teams. I like the Braves at home here.

NFL | Sep 20
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
New England Patriots
-3½+107
at 5DIMES
Started


New England -3.5 @ NY Jets


After a debacle on Monday Night where the Pats showed their weakness on defense, losing the likes of Seymore, Vrable, Harrision and a few others, I doubt they let rookie QB Sanchez walk all over them in a divisional game. My scouts tell me practice was intense all week. QB Brady looked less than stellar on Monday but warmed up later and id what he does, win games.


Expect a fired up Jets team to try to run it a lot, and expect NE to load up on the front line to force rookie Sanchez to have to throw. I also expect the Pats offense to get going here and try to incorporate their RB's into the passing game more out in the flat where NY is suspect. Pats 8-0 SU and ATS at Meadowlands the last 8! Unlike playing the Texans last week, the Pats run defense will be stiffer after a poor showing against Buffalo on Monday and rookie Sanchez will see some blitzs and be forced to win it through the air, doubt NE lets him shred them like Houston did!


FREE Play on New England


5-0 ATS last Sunday, and red hot in the NFL, 15-51 ATS since the beginning of preseason overall! A 4-Play Sunday Card featuring a TOP PLAY and Bonus 2-Team Teaser. This card will profit large! Invest and Win.


NFL | Sep 20
Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Total
43 un-110
at BETUS
Started

Ai Simulator 3* graded play UNDER Arizona/Jacksonville set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that 42 or fewer points will be scored in this game. This is obviously a very big game for both teams and perhaps even bigger for Arizona. Only 14% of 0-2 teams make the playoffs. With the pressure to win so high for both teams a defensive game scheme will be applied by both teams. This also means offensive schemes playing conservative and minimizing turnovers. Supporting this graded play is a very good system sporting a record of 70-36 over the past 5 seasons. Play under with any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the first two weeks of the season. Here is a second system that has gone 80-39 for 67% winners since 1983. Play under with any team against the total and is a marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games and after 1 or more consecutive losses. AiS also shows a 90% probability that both QB's will not complete 60% o better of their pass attempts. Take the UNDER



Ryan did it again Saturday winning both of his premium selections and running his record to an amazing 25-6 ATS. Join him for this huge 10* TITAN DOG that is reinforced by a dog playing system hitting 74% winners on the MONEY LINE!


NFL | Sep 20
Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Arizona Cardinals
+3½-120
at SIA
Started
Jack's Free Sunday Pick on Arizona +3.5

All of a sudden I'm hearing a lot of talk about the Cardinals not being that good of a team and it's making me shake my head. To me the Jags are too weak offensively to keep pace with Arizona and the Cardinals last week looked impressive on defense. San Francisco is a quality team so that loss doesn't put a damper on my opinion of the Cards. They still should have won the game if they didn't have so many penalties and turnovers so with a more disciplined performance this week they should turn things around and win this game.

NFL | Sep 20
Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
+3-104
at 5DIMES
Started
Martin's Sunday NFL Free Play:

1 Unit on Oakland Raiders +3


The road team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series. Oakland went into K.C. last year, coming out with a 23-8 victory behind 300 rushing yards. Oakland should have beaten the San Diego Chargers last week, but a blown call by the refs on an overturned touchdown cost them the game. The Raiders threw for 218 yards and rushed for 148 more in the 20-24 loss. Kansas City managed just 188 yards of total offense against Baltimore last week. They are in shambles right now with the loss of QB Matt Cassel, who isn't expected to play this week, either. The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings overall. The Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their last 10 home games. Oakland is a lot further along than the Chiefs right now, and that will be evident once this one goes final Sunday. Cash in with the Raiders as the underdog.

MLB | Sep 20
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Total
9½ un-110
at SIA
Started
Free MLB Over-Under

MLB | Sep 20
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
-1½+101
at 5DIMES
53min.
Free Play for September 20, 2009
1 Unit on NY Yankees -1.5 +101
Bottom Line: Yankees bounced back with a big 10-1 victory Saturday and I expect them to take Game 3 Sunday to win the series. Snell faced the Yankees for the first time last month and he was lit up for 8 earned in six innings in an 11-1 loss. I like New York's bats against Snell again here and I like Joba to remain solid on the road (5-2, 3.29 ERA). Snell is 2-13 as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 3.5 to 6.8 in these spots. Take the Yankees on the run line.

NFL | Sep 20
Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars
-3-113
at 5DIMES
Started
Lay 2 units on the Jags.

The Cardinals appear to be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover despite the fact that they didn�t even win the Super Bowl. They proved last Sunday that their winless preseason is a strong indicator of how they will perform this year. Arizona�s struggles have been heavily related to Kurt Warner�s struggles. Warner completed 24/46 passes (52.2%) for 320 yards, 3 interceptions and no touchdowns and had a passer rating of 47.4 in the preseason. He was not much better against San Francisco as he threw 2 interceptions to one touchdown and was sacked 3 times. Another key factor to consider in this one is the fact that Arizona is playing on the East Coast. The Cards played terrible on East Coast in the regular season last year going 0-5 and being outscored by an average margin of 20 points per game! Jack Del Rio�s job is on the line so you can expect him to exploit the Cards� weaknesses in every way possible, mainly by applying a lot of pressure on Kurt Warner. I am not a big fan of Jacksonville but I think that there are too many factors in their favor in this matchup.

NFL | Sep 20
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans Saints
-1-105
at SPBOOK
Started
Lay 2 units on the Saints.

This will be an exciting matchup featuring two of the NFC�s most explosive offensive powerhouses. The Eagles managed to score 38 points against Carolina mainly because their defense forced 5 turnovers, meanwhile Drew Brees threw for 358 yards and 6 touchdowns to help the Saints generate 45 points against Detroit.

I like the Saints in this matchup for two main reasons. First, Donovan McNabb fractured a rib last week and will likely not play. This means that despite signing Jeff Garcia, Kevin Kolb will likely be the starting quarterback for the Eagles in their home opener. Kolb has little experience at the professional level since he has never started a game in his young career. His numbers are not fantastic by any means. He has completed 24/45 passes (53.3%) for 167 yards, 4 interceptions and no touchdowns. The main issue with Kolb is his low yards per passing attempt. His career average is 3.7 yards and when he replaced McNabb last week he managed only 23 yards, completing 7 of 11 passing attempts. This means that Philadelphia�s offense will rely heavily on Brian Westbrook to keep chains moving. The other reason I like New Orleans in this one is because the Saints were sharp against the run last week allowing only 33 rushing yards to the Lions. Obviously Philly�s ground attack is much more dangerous than Detroit�s but facing a very limited passing attack, the Saints will likely stack eight in the box forcing third and longs. The key to New Orleans� success will be based on stopping the Eagles ground attack and putting points on the board. Fortunately, they are one of the strongest offensive teams in the league. If Drew Brees can limit his mistakes by not taking unnecessary risks and avoiding throwing the ball into heavy coverage, the Saints should have no problem taking this one.

NFL | Sep 20
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears
Pittsburgh Steelers
-3+105
at BETUS
58min.
Widow's NFL Free Pick for Sunday:

1* on Pittsburgh Steelers -3


The defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers head into Chicago to take on Jay Cutler and the Bears in Week 2. Cutler threw 4 interceptions in a 15-21 loss at Green Bay last week, and throughout his career this hasn't been a quarterback that has handled adversity very well at all. Look for this Steelers' defense to get after him early and often to force more mistakes from Cutler, because he'll surely start Sunday's game with those four interceptions in the back of his mind. He'll be conservative, and this Bears' offense won't be able to make enough plays to keep up with Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers "O". Plus, Chicago will be playing without defensive leader Brian Urlacher for the remainder of the season after breaking his wrist in last week's lost. Pittsburgh also has a few extra days to prepare for this one after taking care of Tennessee 13-10 in their opener last Thursday. Roethlisberger threw for 363 yards and a touchdown last week. The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. Chicago is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as the underdog. The Bears need this one more, but unfortunately for Chicago fans they aren't going to get it because Pittsburgh is far and away the better team in this match-up and they aren't afraid to go on the road and win a big game. Take Pittsburgh and lay the points.

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NFL | Sep 20
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears
+3½-110
at SIA
58min.
Free NFL Play

NFL | Sep 20
Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars
-3-105
at 5DIMES
Started
I went against Arizona last week and will do the same here. The Super Bowl loss hangover was in effect last Sunday as Arizona was getting a lot of credit over an improving San Francisco team. That hangover should continue this week on the road and most notably, on the east coast. The Cardinals lost despite outgaining the 49ers but the offensive effort was pretty bad. It is clear that Kurt Warner is not 100 percent healthy and he is looking really slow. It is just one game but he looked the same in the preseason and I do not see it improving anytime soon. He finished with a 67.2 passer rating as he tossed two interceptions while getting sacked three times and that as we know is a common theme for him. The running certainly did not help him much as the Cardinals rushed for just 40 yards on 17 carries (2.4 ypc). Some credit does have to go to the San Francisco defense for that but the rushing offense was worst in the league last season and it is going to take Beanie Wells some time to get accustomed to the NFL. The Jaguars played a hard fought game in Indianapolis last week as they lost by two points to the Colts. Jacksonville was outgained in that game 365-228 so the final score was not truly indicative of the way the game played out. The Jaguars won the turnover battle 2-0 and that is always big in this league as is the running game which I touched upon earlier with Arizona. Jacksonville held the Colts to 71 yards rushing on 31 carries (2.3 ypc) and that is a big confidence boost for a team that finished middle of the pack at stopping the run last season. Stopping the Cardinals on the ground should not be a problem either as both Indianapolis and Arizona are very similar in one of the feature backs is a rookie. I am not a big fan of David Garrard at quarterback for the Jaguars but like a lot of quarterbacks in this league, he is asked to manage the offense and not lose games. That is because he has a solid running game at his disposal led by Maurice Jones-Drew who is now the full time back with the departure of Fred Taylor. He rushed for 97 yards on 21 carries (4.6 ypc) and he also caught five passes out of the backfield. The running game edge goes to the Jaguars in this matchup even though Arizona put the clamps on Frank Gore last week. As mentioned, the trip east is a tough one for Arizona. It went 0-4 ATS in its four east coast trips that started at 1:00 ET last season and that is a tough trend to buck as it is logically sound and is also a league wide tough situation for team to overcome. With the travel aspect of the Cardinals, it brings in a solid situation favoring the Jaguars. Play against teams that are traveling two time zones and playing an early Sunday game. Those teams are a woeful 20-63 ATS (24 percent) since 2000. The defensive battle from last week favors Jacksonville as it is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after scoring and allowing 14 points or fewer last time out. Also part of that equation is the fact that the Jaguars are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game so they have been a solid bounce back team off poor efforts. 3* Jacksonville Jaguars


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NFL | Sep 20
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Total
46½ un-110
at SIA
Started


FREE PLAY


The Saints are known for their powerful offense, but their biggest improvement this season has actually come on defense and this is now a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The 27 points that New Orleans allowed versus Detroit last week was misleading as the Lions only gained 231 total yards in the game (4.1 yards per play).

Philadelphia will likely be without their starting QB Donovan McNabb who is doubtful with injured ribs which means backup QB Kevin Kolb will get the start. Kolb has been decent in the preseason, but he struggled in the regular season last year with a miserable 21.8 QB rating with a 4.2 yards per pass average and a 0/4 TD/INT ratio.

The Eagles will likely run the ball more than normal in order to take the pressure off the young quarterback, but they will now be facing a solid New Orleans rush defense that allowed just 33 rushing yards (1.1 yards per carry) versus Detroit. Philadelphia was successful on the ground last week at Carolina, but the high-scoring 38-10 score was misleading as the Eagles benefited from 7 Carolina turnover and overall Philadelphia had just 267 total yards (4.4 yppl).


NFL | Sep 20
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
-1-102
at 5DIMES
48min.
FREE PLAY
1 Unit on San Francisco 49ers -1
The Seahawks got a cake walk in Week 1, but they won't get one here against a 49ers squad that just beat the defending NFC champs on the road without playing very well on offense. San Francisco has been a different team since Singletary took over and I'll back them at home this week. The 49ers are the better defensive team and I like their ability to run the football with Gore here. The 49ers can play a lot better than they did in Week 1. They only managed 21 yards rushing on 25 carries. That's unacceptable in Singletary's book and I expect the 49ers to be much more physical up front and to successfully run the football this week. Doing so and playing solid defense should equal a win and cover here. Seattle is 0-7 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, 0-7 ATS in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons, and 4-18 ATS after a win by 21 or more points since 1992. Take the Niners at home.

NFL | Sep 21
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins
Indianapolis Colts
-3OFF
at BODOG
> 1d.
Miami hosts the Colts on Monday Night Football and find themselves in the home Dog role for their home opener.Monday's home game is sandwiched in between two tough road games- Last Sunday's tough 7-19 loss in Atlanta and then they'll have to travel to San Diego next weekend- The road might be a better place for the Fish as they're 1-5 ATS during their last six at home behind Head Coach Tony Sparano. Dolphins QB Pennington is not in his best role either, as we find him at 4-11 ATS as a home Dog and now he tackles a Colts team that's looking to put some offense together after skimming by last Sunday with a 14-12 win against Jacksonville. Expect QB Manning to get things rolling in front of a national TV audience as the Colts are a profitable 5-1 ATS after being held to 14 points or less in their previous game during the Regular season.

7* Play On Indianapolis

MLB | Sep 20
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Total
7½ un-115
at BETUS
Started
Tampa Bay is 14-4 UNDER their last 18 games and they are 17-5 UNDER their last 22 Sunday games. The Rays are 19-6-1 UNDER in Game 3 of a series and they are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games as underdogs. Toronto is 11-3-1 UNDER their last 15 games as home favorites. The Blue Jays are 8-3-1 UNDER with Roy Halladay on the mound as a favorite. The Blue Jays are 34-16 UNDER their last 50 games vs. the Rays. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Halladay vs. Price)

NFL | Sep 20
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
-1-102
at 5DIMES
48min.
San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS their last 6 home games and they are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The 49'ers are 4-1 ATS in Week 2 of the season and they are 4-0 ATS after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their last game. Seattle is 6-21-3 ATS their last 30 games off a straight up win by more than 14 points and they are 2-7 ATS off a straight up win. The Seahawks are 0-5 after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO -

-=TOP PLAY=-
NFL | Sep 20
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans
-7-110
at BETUS
Started
1* Take the Tennessee Titans ATS, The Texans just got beat bad at home by the New York Jets and their defense looked just as bad as it did last season so I look for the Titans offense to have a big day at home Sunday. The Titans are a lot better team than the Texans and they should be favored by more than 7 points at home so we are getting great line value here although I anticipate this line moving later in the week. The Titans have had a few extra days to prepare for this game since they played in the season opener against the defending Super Bowl champions on the Thursday night. The Titans had several chances to win that game in Pittsburgh losing by just 3 points and the Titans are now a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games played in the Month of September. The Titans run-defense looked solid against the Steelers holding them to just 36 total rushing yards and Houston will not be able to get anything going on the ground against them. Since Houston will not be able to get anything going on the ground this will allow the Titans to control the tempo of the game. The Titans offense did about as good as you could do against one the best defenses in the NFL on the road last week. The Titans offense now faces one of the leagues worst defenses so I look for them to put up big numbers at home this week considering the Jets put up 24 points against the Texans on the road last week. The Titans are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against an AFC South opponent and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Texans are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of +3.5 to +10 points and they are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Titans. Take the Tennessee Titans as my NFL Free Pick for Sunday afternoon.

If you enjoyed Vernon Croy's Monday night NFL Smash that cashed hands down with the Buffalo Bills then you will absolutely love his huge NFL Game of the Month for Sunday! Get on it now as his domination on the grid-iron continues!

NFL | Sep 20
Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
+3-119
at 5DIMES
Started
Oakland @ Kansas City 1:00 PM EST
Play On: Oakland +3

The Raiders impressed me somewhat this past Monday night against a much better Chargers team. Kansas City is 1-4 SU and 0-4 ATS as a favorite the past 3 years. Oakland is 2-0 SU and ATS at Kansas City the past 3 years. Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City. Road team is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

NFL | Sep 20
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
-1-110
at BODOG
48min.
InfoPlays Sunday, September 20th Free Play:

3* on San Francisco 49ers -1

Reasons why the 49ers cover the spread:


1.) 49er fans have been yearning for a winner for year, and they finally have one. Mike Singletary has installed a new attitude in this team that's contagious, and they went on the road and beat Arizona last week 20-16 to start the season. Including the preseason, the 49ers are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall, all under the guidance of Singletary. They are 5-1 in their last six regular season games. This team plays the game the right way. Run the football, mix in timely passing, and get after it defensively. The 49ers now have one of the best defenses in the league.

2.) Seattle is 1-13 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. The Seahawks are 0-7 ATS in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Seattle may have beaten up on the Rams at home last week, but now they face a much stiffer challenge in a hungry 49ers' team that won't be denied on their home turf Sunday. Bet San Francisco at home.

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