Sunday, October 18, 2009

Free NFL Sports Picks - Sunday Oct.18

Alex Grosse
NFL | Oct 18
St Louis Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
St Louis Rams
+10-115
at BODOG
> 3h.
Unlocked Sports 2* Freeplay

The Rams are 0-5 this season and are being outscored by an average margin of 22.4 points per game. In fact, they have only won 5 of their last 37 regular season games. These guys are bound for an upset or at the very least they should be able to cover a spread. This matchup probably presents a strong opportunity for St. Louis to finally look somewhat like a competitive football team. The books are giving the Rams 9.5-10 points against an opponent that has had a lot of difficulty covering spreads as a favorite. Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 contests as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in its last 6 as a home favorite. The Jags probably looked even worse in their 41-0 blowout loss to Seattle last week than St. Louis did in any of its contests this season. There is no question that Steve Spagnuolo is sick and tired of watching his club get blown out by the opposition. I can guarantee you that he will have his squad well prepared for this contest and maybe just maybe the Rams may finally get their first win of the season.

Alex was 5-1 and +9.22 units with his NFL selections last weekend. He's got another winning 5Pack including Unlocked Sports' first 2009 NFL 5* Platinum Selection (12-6-1 in 2008)! His 5Pack is guaranteed to profit or his Monday nighter is on the house!

NFL | Oct 18
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Buffalo Bills
+10-110
at SIA
> 6h.
EDGE Article
October 13, 2009
Buffalo at the NY Jets
4:15 EST start
I nailed another 10* MNF winner with the Dolphins as they truly exposed the holes in the Jets defense. It wasn�t just the Wild Cat either that took its� toll on that defense that allowed THREE go ahead touch downs in the 4th quarter. Short week for preparation and a bit of adversity for this Jets team may provide the best opportunity for Buffalo to gain some much needed respect with a solid showing in New Jersey.
The Dolphins did a great job on nose tackle Kris Jenkins. He commands double teams on most every running play, but what Miami did was to use zone blocking to get him moving laterally. This in turn game the RB�s cut back lanes or simply solid holes in the middle of the line. Buffalo has been horrific in protecting their QB on 3rd and long situations. No doubt they will see what Miami did to get the running game in high gear and that will keep them out of third and long situations. This will also allow Edwards extra time by utilize play action and those are the situations that can get TO in man coverage and high percentage pass opportunities.
The Jets are averaging 4.1 rushing yards per carry, but is not a true reflection of the running game. They had 38 yards rushing on 2 fake punts against the Dolphins and they have used a wide array of gadget and reverse plays. They are NOT a dominating running team between the tackles. With injuries to the Buffalo LB starters, the Jets will certainly try to run the ball between the tackles, but I do not see it being effective and the Buffalo defensive perimeter has done an excellent job remaining disciplined in pursuit.
Combine the fundamental research with an Ai Simulator grading of 3 stars and you have the potential for a very close game. AiS shows a 70% probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Her eis a supporting system that has gone 109-59 for 65% winners since 1983. That�s a 26-year track record of consistent winners broken out by a 47-27 10-year mark and a 26-15 5 year mark. Play on road teams that are bad team being outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game after a loss by 6 or less points. Yes, this is new coaching, but this is the first 2 game losing streak for coach Ryan. Note that the Jets are just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bills.
I have now hit 71% ATS winners in College Football over the past 52 premium releases. I am hitting 60% winners in the NHL and all of the plays have been DOGS so far this season. Plus, I won my 15* NLDS Game of the Year play. I went 15-5 in the 2008 MLB play-offs so my best opportunities are still yet to come.

NFL | Oct 18
St Louis Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
St Louis Rams
+10-115
at BODOG
> 3h.
The Rams are certainly not a very good and are arguably the worst team in the NFL right now. But how can Jacksonville be laying close to double-digits after getting absolutely annihilated last week in Seattle? Some will argue that this is the perfect bounce back position but I think it is just the opposite. If anything, it gives the Rams more confidence as they have nothing to lose at this point and feel they can hang with a team that just got their doors busted in. St. Louis lost last week at home against the Vikings by 28 points but it actually outgained Minnesota by 23 yards as it racked up 400 yards of total offense. Turnovers were the difference as the Rams gave it up three times inside the 10-yard line while also giving up a 48-yard fumble return for a touchdown. St. Louis is getting outscored by an average of 22.4 ppg on the season as the offense has had trouble scoring and the defense has had just the opposite effect on the opposition. To the Rams credit they have played the 6th toughest schedule in the NFL as three of their five games have come against teams ranked within the top half of the league. As for the Jaguars, it looked as though they had turned their season around with back-to-back wins over Houston and Tennessee but they took a big step backward last Sunday. After combining for 68 points in those two victories, they were able to get nothing against the Seahawks while mustering only 199 yards of offense. The offense is ranked middle of the pack but it has been hit or miss and even though the Rams are allowing a ton of points, the defense is ranked 23rd in the league which is actually better than the Sunday opponent. Jacksonville is 30th in the NFL in total defense, allowing 380.6 ypg and 25.4 ppg which is 24th in the NFL. If there is a defense that can get a struggling offense going, this could be the one. Marc Bulger will be getting the start this week at quarterback for the Rams. He ended the game last week by going 7-7 for 88 yards and a touchdown and while that was against a defense that had letup, it is still a great confidence booster. Even adding more confidence is playing against a defense that was rung up for 41 points last week. The Jaguars are just 1-8 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons including going 0-6 ATS as a home favorite. The Rams fall into a solid contrarian situation. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 90-48 ATS (65.2 percent) since 1983.Also, play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a loss by 10 or more points going up against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This situation is 45-16 ATS (73.8 percent since 1983. Both of these situations go all the way back to 1983 which makes them even more solid. Expect a closer than expected game in Jacksonville on Sunday. 3* St. Louis Rams


Matt had a WINNING NFL Week 5 and he is ready to extend what has already been a profitable season! He has won 3 of the last 4 Sundays and he is releasing his 10* TOP TICKET which is his #1 REPORT of the entire card! His latest 10* Winner with Cincinnati outright on Sunday moved his 10* plays in the NFL this year to a PERFECT 5-0 ATS!


NFL | Oct 18
Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots
New England Patriots
-9-105
at BODOG
> 6h.
Widow's NFL Free Pick for Sunday:

1* on New England Patriots -9


Coming off a loss to the Denver Broncos in a game they led 17-7 at half, look for the Patriots to come out hungry at home Sunday. They face a Tennessee Titans team that is now 0-5 on the season after their 31-9 loss to the Colts last week. Tennessee is in a world of hurt at quarterback, and on the defensive side of the football. The Titans are allowing 27.8 points/game and 288 passing yards/game. New England is primarily a passing team so Tom Brady and company should have their way with this Tennessee secondary just as Peyton Manning did last week. The Patriots are 3-0 at home this season with solid wins over the Bills, Falcons and Ravens. Tennessee is losing by an average of 10.0 points/game on the road this year, which included a 20-point loss at Jacksonville in their last road trip. New England is scoring 26.0 points/game at home this year and averaging 402 yards/game of total offense. 26 points will be more than enough to win by double-digits Sunday against this pathetic Titans' offense that is scoring only 14.7 points/game away from home. The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Take New England and lay the points.

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NFL | Oct 18
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
-3-111
at 5DIMES
> 3h.
Martin's Sunday NFL Free Play:

1 Unit on Carolina Panthers -3


The Panthers picked up the win they needed to get their season turned around against Washington last week, and now they keep that momentum going as they head into Tampa Bay to face the winless Buccaneers. Carolina rallied from a 17-2 deficit to win 20-17 last week, and now they have all the confidence in the world heading down south Sunday. Tampa Bay is in major rebuilding mode right now, and they aren't going to stop the bleeding this weekend. The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Buccaneers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games on grass, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Bucs really haven't even been competitive this season for the most part. Carolina has owned Tampa Bay in the past, and the Panthers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Bucs overall. Carolina is 4-1 SU in their last 5 trips to Tampa Bay. Cash in with the Panthers as the favorite.

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NFL | Oct 18
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints
-3-115
at BODOG
> 3h.
FREE PLAY
1 Unit on New Orleans Saints -3
(Condensed writeup to get game out ASAP so you can lock in your wagers)
This is a statement game for the Saints to show the NFL that it is for real this season. Off a bye week, New Orleans will be fresh and well prepared. It also catches a break with Eli Manning not being at 100 percent. The Saints have an improved running game to take the pressure off of QB Drew Brees and a defense ranked sixth in the league. After 3 weeks of playing cupcakes, I have the Giants getting stung in the Superdome. New Orleans is 10-1 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 32.8 to 17.1 in these games, and the home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Take the Saints for 1 Unit.

NFL | Oct 18
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers
-14+103
at 5DIMES
> 3h.
Last week I was 2-1 on Sunday. This week I will go a PERFECT 4-0. I have this Free Play as well as 3 GUARANTEED WINNERS for you. I also have my biggest Monday night Footbal release this year.


Today's winner is Pittsburgh over Cleveland.


Pittsburgh is back on track, winning 2 in a row. RB Rashard Mendenhall has put up 243 YR in the last 2 games and rookie WR Mike Wallace is Pittsburgh's new deep threat. Safety Troy Polamalu is listed as probable after being out since Week 1. The Cleveland offense has now failed to score a TD in 9 of their last 11 games. Last week QB Derek Anderson was a dismal 2-17 passing at Buffalo. The favorite in this matchup is 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 meetings. The Brown's are 1-4 ATS their last 5 in Pitt and 2-8-1 ATS their last 11 vs. Pitt. Pittsbirgh covers. Thank you.


NFL | Oct 18
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers
-14-110
at 5DIMES
> 3h.
Free Play for October 18, 2009
1 Unit on Green Bay Packers -14
Bottom Line: The Packers entered their bye week off a tough divisional loss to Minnesota and I expect them to come out of it with a blowout win over lowly Detroit. Remember when the Packers were upset by Cincinnati in Week 2? They followed that up with a 36-17 win over an inferior Rams team. I expect them to do major damage to another inferior team today, one they have owned forever. Green Bay is a perfect 18-0 at home against Detroit since 1992, going 12-4-2 ATS in those games and winning by an average of 13 ppg. That's a big average margin of victory over a long period of time. Over the last 3 seasons, the Packers are 4-0 in all matchups with Detroit, winning by an average of 17 ppg. I'll back the Packers at home today.

NFL | Oct 18
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons
Total
46 ov-107
at 5DIMES
> 11h.
Free Play from Doc�s Sports. #134 Take Over in Chicago @ Atlanta (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC) Both of these teams are known for strong defenses but that has not been the case this season and we expect a shootout to develop playing in perfect conditions inside the dome. Atlanta was dominating last week putting up 45 points in a rout at San Francisco. The Bears have been able to get healthy and will enter this game off of a bye and did score 48 points the last time they were in action. The Bears will be without LB Brian Urlacher and will have to score points in order to win games in 2009. This year they have a big time playmaker at the quarterback position in Jay Cutler. Cutler is not afraid to throw the ball downfield and that creates big plays, whether it be by the offense or by the defense. That sets up well for a strong play on the over, as we will not worry if Atlanta can cover this spread. Doc�s Sports has a strong card coming this week in football, including our Revenge Game of the Year. This team will atone for last year and get the job done in a big way.

NFL | Oct 18
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints
-3-115
at BODOG
> 3h.
Take Saints -3 (1-Dime Free play)
The Saints really impressed me when they played against the Jets and you think of this team as a passing team, but they rank 2nd in the league in rushing offense, and they will face a Giants 15th ranked rush defense. The Giants are vulnerable and banged up right now and their rush defense has faced an average 21st rushing offense. This week they will actually face a solid opponent as on both sides of the ball in terms of who they have faced have not been of quality. The Giants have faced an average 24th ranked total offense and an average 23rd total defense. You can see why they are #2 in offense and #1 in total defense. Saints on the other hand have been playing quality opponents and are more battle tested as well as coming off a bye. The extra preparation pays off in this league. Over the last few years the Giants have been the best road team, but on Sunday they fall into a tough situation against a hot team coming off the bye. If this game was later in the year I take the Giants, but here on Sunday because of where the Giants are, banged up and not battle tested, I'm going to have to take the Saints.

NFL | Oct 18
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Oakland Raiders
Total
40½ ov-103
at 5DIMES
> 6h.
On Sunday the system club play on Sunday is a solid total.Take the over in the Philly at Oakland game. Rotation numbers 225/6 at 4:05 eastern. What we want to do is play the over when any team is a road favorite of -7 or more vs a non-division team,if they play a divisional opponent next week. This system has cashed 24 of 31 times going as far back as 1980. Both teams will put up points in this one. I expect the Raiders to play much better on offense this week,returning home off 2 bad road games. Philly has a solid offense that has scored over 30 points in 3 of their 4 games already this year. Look for a high scoring game here today. Those looking for something to pound I have the non-conference Goy going today. This big banger is backed with a 13-0 system that dates to 1980 and a 23-4 system that dates to the mid 70/s. Also on the card is a 42-12 Double Power angle play and 19-2 system side play. The card is guaranteed. Last week we cashed the big 5 star on Seattle a 41-0 winner. On Sunday the damage continues. Don't miss this big card. Jump on and end the week with the cash.We dominated last week and will do it again today. Take the over in the Eagles at Raiders game for the system club play. RV.

NFL | Oct 18
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers
-14-110
at BETUS
> 3h.
With Fall weather in the air it's only fitting for football to be played at Lambeau Field where the Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions in Week six NFL action.

The Packers come into this one of a bye week in the biggest media event in the NFL so far this season as they squared off against Packer legend Brett Favre and his new team, the Minnesota Vikings. While the Pack ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard, they certainly earned respect and showed they aren't a team who is going to lay down for anyone. This is the Packers third home game this season but first in three games and as with most NFL teams, a week of rest and home cooking should revitalize them as they had been going non stop since the summer. Aaron Rodgers hopes to regain the form he looked to have during the preseason but he is going to need to get better protection from his offensive line. Rodgers has been target practice for defenders when he drops back to pass. If the Pack can get their running game moving it should help him out immensely. The defense has played well so far and while they gave up more than they would have liked at Minnesota, that was against one of the best offenses in the league this year and their effort was more than respectable.

The Lions managed to cover last week through the back door but it was a cover none the less.We are starting to see tat all of those years of drafting high throughout the draft, not just the names we hear most about in the first round. The Lions aren't quite there yet but they have given their fans reason to hope and if they continue to play hard they are bound to win a few more games this season. Injuries are really starting to mount for the Lions and the problem with being a rebuilding team is that you just don't have the quality depth to match up with the better teams. This will more than likely be the Lions undoing throughout the season. It is important to note that while the Lions have played decently at home, they have stunk it up on the road.

Green Bay is 4-0 against the spread in their last four following a bye week and 7-2 against the spread in their last nine against the NFC North. Detroit is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight road games but they are 1-6 against teh spread following their last seven covers. The Packers have covered in five of the last six meetings between these two and the favorite has covered in four of the last five.

I am not sold on Green Bay this season and feel they are over rated. If they fail to get protection for Rodgers it will be difficult for him to stay healthy throughout the season. The Lions will be a decent team sooner rather than later but with the mounting injuries they are in a tough spot. Calvin Johnson is out this game and that will give the Lions one less thing to work with.

Mitch's Pick: Green Bay

NFL | Oct 18
Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings
-3+110
at BOOKM
> 3h.
Another huge weekend on tap for Craig as he has three CFB 5 star plays for the weekend and 3 NFL 5 star plays save big buy a weekly pass and don't miss any of Craig's Winners!!

MIN -3: Two teams headed in opposite directions. MIN is coming off 2 very nice ATS wins where as BAL is coming off two losses both straight up and ATS.

Close your eyes and imagine the defense of BAL past can you dream about them? OK well that dream is just that a dream. This defense is no longer the dominant defense of yesterday. Instead this defense has flashes of excellence but also has some huge lapses where they give out huge plays. Lucky for BAL the offense has improved but still are still not a dominant offense that can be counted on to win a high scoring affair.

Minnesota is riding high and really match up well with BAL this week. To beat the Ravens you need to run the ball and stay out of long yardage third downs. Well this MIN team is the best running team in the league with the best RB on the planet. MIN offense will have the Ravens scratching their head all day and will dominate TOP with the great run game. Defensively MIN will put constant presure on Flaco and will cause at least two to's.

Not as close as many are picking. SCORE MIN 27 - BALT 16